Category: Risk Guides

  • Where to Place a Stop-Loss: Percentage, ATR and Structure Compared

    Key takeaways
    • A stop-loss marks where your trade idea is wrong, so it also sets your size.
    • ATR stops adapt to volatility; percentage stops ignore it.
    • Never widen a stop after entry, and never pick the stop to fit the size.

    A stop-loss is the price at which you accept that a trade idea was wrong. Placing it well matters twice: it limits your loss, and because position size comes from the stop distance, it determines how large your trade can be. There is no universal best method. These are the three most common approaches and their trade-offs.

    Three ways to place the same stop

    Entry $100Swing lowPercentage2% = $98ATR2 x ATR = $96Structurebelow swing low = $94

    Illustrative price path, not real market data. Three stop placements for the same long entry at $100.

    The three methods

    1. Percentage

    A fixed distance below entry, such as 2% or 5%. Simple and consistent, but blind to how much the market normally moves.

    2. ATR (volatility)

    A multiple of the Average True Range, often 1.5 to 3 times. Adapts to current volatility, but the multiple is a judgment call.

    3. Structure

    Beyond a swing low or support area. Tied to a reason, but the distance can be large, forcing a smaller position.

    Percentage stops

    A fixed percentage below (or above, for shorts) your entry. It is simple, consistent and easy to calculate. The weakness is that it ignores how much the market normally moves. A 2% stop is generous on a quiet stock and far too tight on a volatile altcoin, where ordinary noise can trigger it.

    Volatility stops (ATR)

    Average True Range (ATR) measures the typical price movement over a period, commonly 14 candles. An ATR stop places the stop a multiple of that range away from entry.

    $100
    Entry
    $2
    14-day ATR
    2 x ATR
    Stop distance = $4
    25 units
    $100 risk / $4

    The strength is that it adapts to current volatility. The weakness is that the multiple and the period are choices that change the result, and it says nothing about where the trade idea actually fails.

    Structure stops

    The stop sits beyond a recent swing low or high, or beyond a support or resistance area, so that it is hit only if the market structure behind the idea breaks. Many traders add a small buffer beyond the level to avoid brief wicks. The distance can be large, which forces a smaller position.

    Comparing the three

    Method Based on Best suited to
    Percentage Fixed distance Simple, rules-based routines
    ATR Current volatility Instruments whose volatility changes a lot
    Structure Chart levels Setups with a clear invalidation point

    Common mistakes

    Fitting the stop to the size

    Moving the stop closer so you can hold more defeats the purpose. Set the stop first, then size the trade.

    Widening after entry

    This increases your loss beyond what you planned and turns small losses into large ones.

    Ignoring costs

    Spreads and fees make the real loss larger than the stop distance.

    Also remember that a stop does not always fill at its price. In fast markets or gaps, execution can be worse than planned.

    Putting it together

    Whichever method you use, the process is the same: decide where the idea fails, measure the distance to that price, and size the position so a stop-out costs only your planned risk. Writing down your stop rule in advance, and recording each trade, makes it easier to see which method actually works for you.

    Run the numbers on your own tradeThe free position size calculator does this arithmetic for you, including fees and leverage.

    Open the calculator

    This article is for education only. It is not financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any asset. Trading involves a high risk of loss.

  • Why Losing Streaks Are Statistically Normal

    Key takeaways
    • Long losing streaks are normal, even for profitable strategies.
    • Drawdowns are harder to recover from than they look.
    • Size for the streak you could plausibly hit, not the average.

    Many traders abandon a sound strategy after a handful of losses in a row, because a streak feels like proof that something is broken. Usually it is not. Streaks are a normal feature of random outcomes, and knowing how common they are is a practical part of risk management.

    How likely is a losing streak?

    If each trade loses independently with probability q, the chance of n losses in a row is q to the power of n. For a strategy that wins half its trades, five straight losses has a probability of 3.1% for any given set of five trades. That sounds rare, but over a series of trades there are many chances for a streak to start.

    Chance of a losing streak in 100 trades

    0%25%50%75%100%81%98%5 or more32%69%7 or more4%21%10 or more50% win rate40% win rate

    Probability of at least one losing streak of this length within 100 trades. Assumes independent trades and a fixed win rate, which is a simplification; real markets can be more clustered.

    A strategy with a 40% win rate, which can be profitable when winners are larger than losers, will often produce ten losses in a row over a year of trading.

    What streaks cost depends on position size

    A streak is survivable or fatal depending on how much you risk per trade. Here are ten consecutive losses at different risk levels.

    Same streak, very different damage

    0%20%40%60%80%9.6%1%18.3%2%40.1%5%65.1%10%

    Account drawdown after ten consecutive losing trades, by risk per trade.

    Why recovery is harder than the loss

    Losses and gains do not cancel symmetrically. A 50% drawdown needs a 100% gain to get back to even. The deeper the hole, the steeper the climb.

    The recovery curve gets steep fast

    0%50%100%150%200%250%+11%-10%+25%-20%+43%-30%+100%-50%+233%-70%Drawdown from peak

    Gain needed to return to the previous peak after a given drawdown.
    Drawdown Gain needed to recover
    10% 11.1%
    20% 25%
    30% 42.9%
    50% 100%
    70% 233%

    What to do about it

    Size for the streak

    Pick a risk per trade that lets you absorb the longest streak you could plausibly hit without a damaging drawdown.

    Decide in advance

    Some traders reduce size or pause after a set drawdown. A rule written in calm conditions beats a decision made after five losses.

    Avoid revenge trading

    Increasing size to win back losses turns a normal streak into a deep one.

    Also judge a strategy on enough trades. A small sample says very little about whether an approach works, so review your journal over dozens of trades, not a handful.

    The takeaway

    You cannot avoid losing streaks, but you can decide how much they cost. Fixing your risk per trade, sizing from your stop, and tracking results over time keeps a normal run of losses from becoming an account-ending one.

    Run the numbers on your own tradeThe free position size calculator does this arithmetic for you, including fees and leverage.

    Open the calculator

    This article is for education only. It is not financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any asset. Trading involves a high risk of loss.

  • Position Sizing and the 1% Rule, With Worked Examples

    Key takeaways
    • Decide what you can lose first, then let the stop-loss set your size.
    • Position size = (account x risk %) / (entry – stop).
    • Risking about 1% per trade keeps losing streaks survivable.

    Most traders decide how much to buy by feel. Professionals do it the other way round: they decide how much they are willing to lose, and let the stop-loss determine the size. This guide shows the method, and why so many traders cap that risk at around 1% of the account.

    The core idea

    Position size is not about how much you want to own. It is about how much you will lose if you are wrong. Two inputs set that amount: your risk limit, and the distance between your entry and your stop.

    The formula

    Position size=(Account size x Risk %)/(Entry price – Stop price)

    For a short trade, use the absolute distance between entry and stop. The result is in units of the instrument: shares, coins or contracts.

    Example 1: a stock

    $10,000
    Account size
    1% = $100
    Risk per trade
    $100 to $95
    Entry to stop ($5)
    20 shares
    Position size

    Position size = $100 / $5 = 20 shares, a position worth $2,000. If the stop is hit, you lose about $100, or 1% of the account. Buy 50 shares because the number feels right, and the same stop costs $250.

    Same stop, different loss

    $07515022530010020 shares (sized)25050 shares (by feel)

    Same entry, same stop: the loss scales with position size. Values in dollars.

    Example 2: a crypto trade

    Account $10,000, risk 1% ($100), entry $64,200, stop-loss $61,800. The distance is $2,400, so position size = $100 / $2,400 = about 0.042 BTC, worth roughly $2,675. The position is far smaller than the account. Position value and risk are different numbers, and only risk should be fixed.

    Entry, stop and target

    Take profit$68,400Entry$64,200Stop-loss$61,800Reward $4,2001.75 RRisk $2,4001 R, sized to $100

    Illustrative trade. The position is sized so that reaching the stop costs about $100, while the target pays about $175.

    Why 1%?

    The figure is a convention, not a law. It is popular because it keeps losing streaks survivable. Ten consecutive losses at 1% risk leave an account down about 9.6%. At 5% risk per trade, the same streak costs about 40%, and recovering that takes a 67% gain. Many traders use between 0.5% and 2%, depending on their strategy and experience.

    Risk per trade vs. damage from a streak

    0%20%40%60%80%9.6%1%18.3%2%40.1%5%65.1%10%

    Drawdown after ten consecutive losing trades, by risk per trade.

    Fees and slippage

    Real losses are usually larger than the plan. Exchange fees, spreads and slippage add to the distance between entry and exit. Including a round-trip fee estimate gives a more honest size. In fast markets or overnight gaps, a stop may fill beyond its price, so treat your risk limit as a target, not a guarantee.

    Leverage does not change the risk

    Leverage lets you hold a larger position with less capital, but the formula is unchanged: risk is the size multiplied by the stop distance. What leverage changes is the margin you lock up and how close you are to liquidation. If a leveraged position can be liquidated before your stop is reached, the stop is not protecting you.

    A short checklist

    1. Choose your risk per trade as a percentage of the account.
    2. Place the stop where the trade idea is clearly invalidated.
    3. Calculate the size from the distance. Do not choose the size first.
    4. Check that the position and margin fit within your account.
    5. Record the trade so you can review your results.

    Run the numbers on your own tradeThe free position size calculator does this arithmetic for you, including fees and leverage.

    Open the calculator

    This article is for education only. It is not financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any asset. Trading involves a high risk of loss.